Last week’s headline was that we were “close to being oversold”, the market downtrend would likely slow down, and for us not to chase the market downwards at that time.
That was yet another excellent commentary, though the steepness and speed of this bounce were a genuine surprise. In fact by the end of Tuesday I was more inclined for a bear flag to be forming, but Wednesday and Thursday put that thought to rest.
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Now for the markets …
Last week’s guidance was for a slowdown in the downtrend and we got much more than that. Such a profound bounce is now unlikely to be turn into a waterfall.
What does look more likely is for a consolidation, perhaps even a pullback (ie. a steep consolidation), and then provided there’s no bad news then a Santa rally.
That’s how quickly the markets can change, and you do need to be fluid in your approach. That means “Trade What You See” and don’t be wedded to an opinion.
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Again, be super fussy and be happy to be patient. Trading mistakes often come through a lack of patience.
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As described above, I would now expect a pause of sorts before another push up.
Watch the video for more detail.
The Main Indices:
Last week I said this:
“The SPY is looking close to being oversold as it has shot past its 200-dma. The QQQ looks like it wants to rest on its 200-dma. The DIA and IWM also look oversold in the short term.”
This week, the DIA, QQQ and SPY are all just above their 50-dma’s respectively, while the IWM is just below its. This suggests a pause is due after a serious 5-day surge.
- Longer Term Market Timer (OVIsi):
- Medium Term Swing Timer:
- Index OVIs:
Only the DIA’s OVI has moved into the blue territory, while the other indices OVIs are neutral. Given how quickly the market moved, that’s not altogether a surprise.
Fast Filters Stock Selection:
The scarcity of nuggets continues, but we have highlighted some solid setups every week. If this recent upward move consolidates, then we could be in for an excellent post-earnings period.
Of all the Big Money Footprints, the three most important are OVI, Shrinking Retracements, and Key Levels. The others are also very helpful, but those three are the ones I look for first in the VIP section.
Go into the ‘Expert Watchlists’ area of the platform to view my Watchlists for (a) all the stocks I cover in today’s video, and (b) a smaller list that warrant a closer look.
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Watch today’s market review inside the members area here! To the left is the Watchlist area. To the right is the TV area.
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