Right Again, But The Signs Of Over Extension Are Mounting

The first week of earnings provided another positive week marred by a slightly tougher Friday. This particularly hit oil & gas energy stocks and financials stocks, though all the indices held up pretty well.

The big tech stocks shook off the Nasdaq’s imminent rebalance where the top 7 tech giants will have their collective weightings reduced on the index.

Our market timing has continued to be outstanding, purely by using our unique tools and approach. Recalling the past couple of weeks it would have been easy to play on the fact that the markets were overbought and that a retracement was imminent, but our indicators and experience suggested there was more juice.

That juice is progressively likely to be on borrowed time now. The only question is when the time will come for a meaningfully steep retracement. The most likely scenario is for further increased volatility (we’ve already seen that over the last couple of weeks in both directions) during earnings, and then an increase in profit taking after the big tech stocks have reported.

As ever though, our most important job is to only trade what we see … and for us that means the Big Money Footprints in the context of our three Master Keys. Keep it simple, avoid having an opinion, think Quality over Quantity, and only trade the AAA setups.

Market Outlook:

The indices continue to show robustness, and while I would expect 20-dmas to be tested, the overall strength has a good chance of continuing until after the big techs report their earnings.

More day-to-day volatility is likely, and we continue to edge closer to much more meaningful retracement, but as with the past couple of weeks there is still some room for further upside first.

Watch the video for more detail.

The Main Indices:

The S&P is holding firm but is significantly overstretched, even from its 20-dma, so a minor pullback to at least that level is inevitable soon.
The QQQ is also overbought from its 20-dma, but the big tech stocks are still attracting buyers.
The IWM is likely to pull back to its 20-dma in the next few days.
The DIA looks strong when you look at 12-month chart. A test of the 20-dma is likely soon.
Last week I mentioned that the June highs were attainable, and they have indeed all been reached and breached.

Market Timers:

  • Longer Term Market Timer (OVIsi): Now full green, but like the last three weeks only just by a whisker. As suggested over the last couple of weeks, this could easily slide back into half-green.
  • Medium Term Swing Timer: Bullish and not overbought.
  • Index OVIs: All currently in broadly positive territory but looking like they need a brief pullback.

Fast Filters Stock Selection:

Great setups near Key Levels have been harder to come by this week as there are so many stocks that are extended.

I’ve continued to focus more towards the bullish side of things, but it’s likely to get more challenging to find ideal setups. As ever, I use the various Big Money Filter combinations, particularly the combination of bullish Shrinking Retracements near Key Levels with convincing OVIs.

Here is a smaller list of stocks that look interesting for our consideration. Remember to reference the video so you know what my sentiment is on each one: 


Software Upgrades:

As mentioned last week, more Watchlist upgrades to follow during July, including our Expert Watchlists, Journal app calculator and TV channel.

Remember, the Bearish Shrinking Retracements are now in the VIP watchlists and will soon be deployed as filters. So, VIPs (stocks and options will get both bullish/bearish Shrinking Retracements and Overbought/Oversold filters in their TradeFinder Filter areas, as well has having them as preset dynamic watchlists.

By the London Stocks Summit on December 2nd we should also have our new charts, which will be among the biggest game-changers we’ve ever deployed. 

Stay in touch to discover more as we unveil best-of-breed applications!


We’ll give details soon for April’s OptionEasy Bootcamp in ORLANDO!

Next up is our Stocks Summit in London on 2nd December will also be accompanied by huge new releases.  We’ll also do a Foundation Day online the Saturday before the big event so we can focus on more practicals during the event.

Remember, you can play the video at 1.25x or 1.5x speed if you want to save time! I have placed all the stocks covered in today’s review in your “Latest Preview” watch list.

PS. If you’re interested in any of our OVI trading services for stocks or options such as a fast-track mentorship or workshop event, book yourself an appointment here to speak with us. Many of our members aren’t aware of all the services we offer to help you become a more ‘informed’ and confident trader with the OVI. Remember, everyone is an individual, and we ensure that we can cater to you and your particular needs.

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