No doubt in the last couple of days you’ll have read about Alessio Rastani’s rather insensitive comments made on the BBC.
First, as a student of mine, I’ve personally told him that I deplore the manner in which he said what he said. No decently-minded trader would “dream for a recession” and the misery that accompanies it for real people. His words were badly chosen, callous and ignorant, and to be fair, do not reflect that Alessio is in fact a decent bloke who clearly had a rush of blood when inadvisably under the spotlight.
Second, regarding his comments about Goldman Sachs, there are a lot of conspiracy theories out there about fractional reserve banking, the ownership of the Fed, etc. Now, I’ve read many of these conspiracy theories – they’re great entertainment if nothing else – and my conclusion is … I don’t know! While the conspiracy theorists make very logical arguments, they tend to be based on unsubstantiated statements of supposed “fact”. That’s not to say they’re necessarily inaccurate, but their arguments would certainly lead to a “reasonable doubt” in any court of law, and much of their evidence would be inadmissible.
For me it’s too flimsy to back an argument with “That’s what they want you to think”. So, when it comes to conspiracies, I’m open-minded but yet to be convinced either way.
I certainly do NOT wish for a recession, and no right-minded human being could ever wish for that. What traders do like is a market that moves definitively one way or another. And that’s probably the nub of what Alessio meant. Traders like trending markets – that’s where we make the most money, and it doesn’t matter to traders if that trend is up or down. Had he said this, there probably wouldn’t be the furore.
Where We Are Now?
In terms of where we are right now, it’s a case of same-old-same-old. This week has seen a positive jump from the double bottoms exhibited on the Dow and S&P, while the Nasdaq is forming a rising channel. The S&P’s OVI is still negative. The Dow’s continues to be neutral, and the Nasdaq’s is at neutral last night in the context of it lurching one way and then another.
I’m sticking with the S&P’s negative reading for now, though that could change quickly if the markets continue to drift up. We’d need a break of resistance and a positive OVI reading to be enthusiastic, though the likes of AMZN and AAPL are maintaining their positive OVIs, and in the event of a market surge, will be the inevitable leaders.
