Just seven weeks until Miami, the LAST one of its kind, so it’s bitter sweet for me personally.
But as ever, it’s going to be an amazing event, and I’ll leave it all out there on the field, giving you my very best, as well as you receiving all our latest and greatest options upgrades.
And this year, they are considerable, with one of the biggest sweep of upgrades we’ve ever released.
So, last weekend I said the S&P was likely to drift lower towards and below its 50-dma and 200-dma Key Levels, and there was likely to be some friction around them.
It did precisely that before bouncing sharply off the 200-dma on Thursday and following through on Friday.
That’s good, and potentially reason for optimism, but right now I don’t see the high quality setups forming, so I would counsel a bit more patience.
I mentioned that theme of low quality setups two weeks ago, and we all know what happened after that.
This time is not quite as clear, but if you want to take the best advantage of the markets, you need clarity with market timing as well as stock selection.
This is where being a lion – not a headless chicken – really pays dividends. Right now is prime lion time, which means observe. The market can reveal its hand very quickly – literally in just a couple of days – yielding high quality setups for stocks and options.
So, practice observing. The setups we can profit from include probable moves and probable “not moves”.
By “not moves” I mean stocks that might be overstretched or where significant support/resistance as well as other factors preclude a breach of certain levels.
In these select circumstances an options credit spread can deliver high probability income trades. But as ever, quality always trumps quantity. This is a big topic in our Miami Bootcamp.
Market Outlook:
The anticipated friction around the S&P’s Key Levels didn’t last long, but the story isn’t over just yet.
As it happened our Medium-Term Timer was spot on as it showed an oversold reading last weekend, and the anticipated slip below the 200-dma didn’t last long.
From here it is far from clear, but I’m going to go with the lack of great quality setups forming right now.
This means one of two likely short-term outcomes:
Either the market consolidates for a few days and starts to form better quality setups.
Or we start rattling around again near those big Key Levels.
In a bullish market we would be getting very excited about the shrinking retracements that we’re seeing in all the major indices … and they might just play out, with this most recent retracement bouncing off the Key Levels.
Thursday and Friday’s bounce was nice to see, but it wasn’t accompanied by huge volume conviction, and the consolidations we are seeing aren’t that attractive.
Watch the video for more detail.
The Main Indices:
The SPY slipped lower as expected, but then bounced quicker than expected. I expect some bouncing around in both directions, perhaps even testing those Key Levels again soon.
The QQQ was a whisker away from its 50-dma before bouncing sharply upwards. Likely to move sideways in a chaotic fashion for the next few days.
The IWM has been surprisingly robust, and its bounce up is from a sideways consolidation, which is typically very attractive. I expect the recent lows to hold firm.
Market Timers:
- Longer Term Market Timer (OVIsi): Still half-green and will continue this week.
- Medium Term Swing Timer: Negative but rising and will likely poke into positive territory this week.
- SPY OVI: Slow to respond to upside at the moment.
Friday’s follow through was somewhat unexpected. We need to observe the next couple of days.
Fast Filters Stock Selection:
As per the last couple of weeks, a relatively small number of nuggets, but things can change very quickly.
This week’s consolidations aren’t of the best quality, so be patient – like a lion!
Here is a smaller list of stocks that look interesting for our consideration. Remember to reference the video so you know what my sentiment is on each one:
AAPL ABBV AGL AMD BGS CEG CHD CVX DASH DSX EQT FLEX FLT FMC FUTU JNJ KBH LKQ LMT MOS MRK MTDR NFLX OKTA OMCL PANW SBUX SNOW TRIP VLO VZ XOM ZION ZM
Software Upgrades:
The upgrades I’m releasing for Miami are, quite frankly, ridiculous!
- Overbought/Oversold filters (great for credit spreads)
- Shrinking retracements filters / watchlists (ideal for your bread, butter and also plenty of jam!)
- OptionEasy Pricer at the side of the chart (will save you hours each day)
- OptionEasy Analyzer at the side of the chart (will save you days each week!)
Also, a revamped education suite is on the way so you can take better advantage of our unique content and also our quizzes!
And that’s not all … Very soon after Miami I’ll be deploying a whole new Journal app with an inbuilt calculator for you to be in control of risk at all times.
Then will be the TV component so you can watch our education content or your mentors right next to the chart you’re looking at. And then there will be wholesale upgrades to the charts too.
Stay in touch to discover more as we unveil best-of-breed applications!
Events:
The OptionEasy Bootcamp on 22-23 April is only SEVEN WEEKS away, and with all the upgrades coming, it will be our best ever. It’s at the National Hotel on South Beach Miami, and we’ll also be broadcasting live and recording it. I will be unveiling more upgrades and findings, making all of our trading more precise and more efficient.
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Remember, you can play the video at 1.25x or 1.5x speed if you want to save time! I have placed all the stocks covered in today’s review in your “Latest Preview” watch list.
