Happy 4th of July on Monday!
This of course means there was light trading on Friday, which cannot be taken completely at face value. And that’s a shame because it was a strong second half.
Last weekend I said there looked like there could be initial signs of buyers returning to the market, but it could also be short covering leading to a bear trap, so beware!
By Thursday it was looking like a bear trap, but Friday then recovered well, finishing on a two-day (and almost three-day) high.
It’s also been fascinating to observe the musings of a couple of market professionals I respect, and how they are 180 degrees diametrically opposed in their views.
One is experimenting with bullish opportunities while being aware not to bottom-fish.
The other is 100% bearish for the medium term.
What is quite evident is that they are both leaning towards their own confirmation biases, which is quite normal really.
So, where am I on this?!
Well, I can only really go on what I see.
And what I see right now is somewhat mixed, but the one thing that is jumping out at me is that there are a lot of bullish-leaning Shrinking Retracements out there right now, across the board.
At the same time though, the OVIsi (long-term market timer) is still firmly red. Our short-term and medium-term market timers and the S&P OVI are all rather noncommittal right now.
So, what does that mean?
I believe the market is starting the process putting in a base. Be warned, this can last weeks or months, and can provide big winners and whipsaws along the way.
The safest way to play it is to only focus on the Big Money Footprint setups and protect your profits early. Plain and simple.
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Again, 2023’s Miami Bootcamp is now set for 22-23 April at the National Hotel. I’ll have our group discount link for you as soon as possible, and if you’re interested, you should reserve your hotel room asap as I’m partnering with a large group of traders from Latin America … and they love travelling to Miami!
London’s WiseTraders Stocks Summit (Strategies Day) is set for 3rd December at the Heathrow Courtyard Marriott, and we’ll do the the Foundation Day online the week before.
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Current Market Behavior:
From what I can see, the market is tentatively trying to start putting in a base. There are still dangers lurking, which is why this base may take a while. The geo-political environment remains unstable with several implications affecting energy and food prices in particular.
The Dashboard is still a mixed bag, but a rather different looking mixed bag from last week.
Consolidations are much fewer, but now showing up more as bull flags in a complete opposite to last week.
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My Longer Term Market Timer, the OVIsi is still firmly in its red zone, which means that any bounce should be considered in a short-term context. While new lows are possible, I do believe the worst of the downward moves has already occurred. The situation does, however, remain rather fluid.
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The Medium Term Swing Timer, the Short Term Timer and the S&P’s OVI are all noncommittal.
All indices remain below their Key Levels, even their 20-dmas.
Market Outlook:
I expect some further choppiness while the markets base over the next few months.
Stock Selection Using Our Fast Filters:
Today, I have focused on Big Money Footprint setups in both directions, Implied Volatility Bullish Divergence and short squeezers, both with bullish Big Money biases. Also my static watch lists.
Software Upgrades
We have some very big news coming in the next few weeks … make sure you keep reading my regular reviews as it’s going to make a very big difference, as well as pave the way for huge upgrades in the future!
That’s on top of the many more important upgrades to follow in late summer / early fall.
Events
Next year’s Miami is confirmed for April 22-23, and as mentioned above, due to a partnership with a Latin American based outfit, the live tickets will be snapped up quickly, so we will give first dibs to our regulars!
This year’s Stocks Summit is confirmed for 3rd December at the London Courtyart Marriott Heathrow, as per last year. More details will follow shortly.
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Remember, you can play the video at 1.25x or 1.5x speed if you want to save time! I have placed all the stocks covered in today’s review in your “Latest Preview” watch list.
