Last week we cheered the indices breaching their 50-dma’s. This week they spring-boarded off those levels for a strong rally.
As I’ve mentioned several times recently, it looks to me like basing action is already in place, and the last few days’ behavior only reinforces that viewpoint.
The question now is whether we’re in a bear market rally or something more exciting?
At this point it’s too early to say, particularly as we’re in the summer holiday weeks.
My assessment is that dark clouds still loom large over the market, and that the indices will stall at or below their 200-dma’s, which will then result in the extension of the basing action.
Remember, I’m using the exact same tools that you’re using in terms of Market Timing and Stock Selection via my applications.
Current Market Behavior:
Well, the attempt to form a base is hardly tentative now, is it! Price action is really good, but you can see the Shrinking Retracements forming on the S&P, which means we’re not likely to keep steaming upwards without a rest.
- Look at the S&P move down from 29th March to 20th May.
- Then from 2nd June to 17th June.
Two down-moves where the second makes a new low, but is a lesser percentage move.
There is very likely to be a further down move in the coming weeks, which hopefully will be lesser in percentage terms than that last down move.
So, you can anticipate market temperature in this way, but only act on AAA setups as defined by our Big Money Footprints and consolidations.
If a setup occurs within the broader picture of Shrinking Retracements, then even better.
Some stocks are doing this already, potentially setting up as the new leaders.
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My Longer Term Market Timer, the OVIsi is getting close to changing from red to half-red or amber.
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The Medium Term Swing Timer remains in positive territory, while the Short Term Timer made a down bar on the 26th, followed immediately by an up-bar, which made far more sense as the index was consolidating above its 50-dma.
The OVI is looking far healthier on the SPY too, suggesting further upside in the short term.
The indices have roared above their 50-dma’s which now counts as support. As mentioned several times, I do believe the most severe of this cycle’s downward moves has already occurred.
Market Outlook:
This is what I said last week:
While I love my pre-earnings strategy, this is not the earnings cycle to use it!
Well, that was wrong wasn’t it! Ok, not wrong, but many stocks have performed very well at earnings during the last week.
Today, I will give you some more pre-earnings stocks, but do beware, it remains higher risk even in these conditions. So, there’s the pre-earnings strategy health warning!
Stock Selection Using Our Fast Filters:
Today, I have focused on consolidations, recent stocks we’ve been observing, implied volatility bullish divergences, short squeezers, and my static watch list stocks.
Software Upgrades
It’s all happening, and I gave a preview of a big upgrade in last week’s webinar.
That’s in addition to the many more important upgrades to follow in late summer / early fall.
Events
I’ve started to send out the discounted hotel link for Miami 2023, and this process will continue for the next couple of weeks. If you want to go, please secure your preferential rate now because they will fill up.
This year’s Stocks Summit is confirmed for 3rd December at the London Courtyart Marriott Heathrow, as per last year. More details will follow very soon.
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Remember, you can play the video at 1.25x or 1.5x speed if you want to save time! I have placed all the stocks covered in today’s review in your “Latest Preview” watch list.