Tough Autumn Arrived Early
I’ve been saying for some time that the OVI is negative, we were in for a tough autumn, and that this year was resembling 2008 in some ways.
Looks like these were pretty accurate assessments and the markets seem set for more wild gyrations.
These times are fantastic learning opportunities while taking on no risk. Observe and look at the tools you already have at your disposal. The OVI has been phenomenal in setting the scene. It has been completely unambiguous in telling us which way the market is going, and as such, the more adventurous have made good gains – albeit accompanied by a bumpy ride.
SPY
Well it’s pretty unambiguous, isn’t it! Wide ranging bars, big whipsaws, increasing volatility … it’s not a market for serious buyers. You could get lucky on a particular day, but you could lose the lot the next day. Stick to my rules and the high probability game that we play.
Let’s take two great stocks and test the water with them too – we’ll see that bearishness is all dominant right now.
AAPL
Even AAPL is suffering, with key support under threat as we speak. While the stock could bounce up and down, for now a bullish punt would be dangerously speculative.
AMZN
I like AMZN, but not for now! Key support has already been broken on Thursday and what I foresee right now is more uncertainty. At times like this you can choose your next entry point as new support/resistance levels are created, or wait for a more technical (and less panicky) market to return.
All the best
Guy