Market Outlook:
We did pretty well last week with some notable winners and no “stinkers”!
From last week:
This suggests to me that the rally will weaken. The question is … when?! My answer is within a matter of weeks. I’ll get more precise on that when price action starts to confirm. And all this is perfect in the broader context of the likelihood that we are in a multi-month basing environment.
So, from Wednesday on the market surged, and this is not out of context of what I was saying. Price action has not yet confirmed a weakness in this rally, but I’m confident it will do within the time-frame I mentioned, which was by the end of September.
I am still confident this breakout will be the final one before the next downswing, so in the meantime we’ll focus on quality setups in either direction. For now, the vast majority of those are bullish.
The Main Indices:
The S&P is closing in on its 200-dma and my price target for this rally is 4455 or lower (444 on SPY).
The DJ-30 has hit is 200-dma. The QQQ is getting closer, and the IWM has closed above its!
From last week:
Now, it’s entirely possible that the non-participation is down to the fact that we’re in the summer holidays and participation is naturally lower than normal.
But my assessment is that by the end of September (likely much sooner) we’ll be in a down leg at least back down to the 50-dma.
And again, remember, this is all part of the broader basing that we’ve spoken about, and so it’s entirely expected.
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Market Timers:
The Longer Term Market Timer (OVIsi) remains on amber and won’t change for a while.
The Medium Term Swing Timer remains in positive territory and not quite officially overbought (though it’s getting closer).
The Short Term Timer made more up arrow bars last week, but needs to be used with discretion.
The SPY OVI is looking positive.
Fast Filters Stock Selection:
I’ve gone through most of my Fast Filters this week and here’s a smaller segment that you can focus on.
AMZN AU CCL CHD CLF CVNA CVX DD DIS DOCS DT FCX HD LMT LYFT MOS MTCH OSTK PRLB RCL SLCA SOFI SRPT UPS
Software Upgrades:
This autumn will see a flurry of activity, starting in the next two weeks! Data improvements, an integrated newsfeed, and a critical update to the OptionEasy Analyzer.
Events:
The Stocks Summit is on 3rd December at the London Courtyard Marriott Heathrow. More details will follow.
Miami 2023 hotel rooms are starting to go. If you’re planning to go, please secure your preferential hotel rate now because it is a certainty that they will fill up and the room rates will rise.
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Remember, you can play the video at 1.25x or 1.5x speed if you want to save time! I have placed all the stocks covered in today’s review in your “Latest Preview” watch list.
