I hope you’re keeping well and holding up during these unusual times.
It’s a curious situation where we feel huge empathy for our fellow beings, and yet we have here the tools and skills to grab opportunities at the same time.
The mitigating factor is that no harm is caused to anyone else just because you can trade or are learning how to do so properly.
My overriding mood is one of calm concern, and yet focus and optimism too. My optimism stems from the amazing work behind the scenes that I’ll be releasing very soon, that will make even bigger differences to all of us that use my tools.
To serve you properly I have to remain calm and focused.
Here’s what’s in the pipeline to be released very soon:
- New OptionEasy software – this is already in a soft release, and I’m making tweaks in advance of our event on 18-19th April.Highlights will include bull-put spread research and resulting further TradeFinder improvements, plus upgraded calculators including the Pricer.
- Home Hedge Fund – in this market there’s no particular hurry it’s a long fund model, but we’re close to releasing this for those that attended London and are attending “Miami”. The key to this will be using it as an “idea generator” like others are using my OVIcopilots.
- Fair Weather Indicator – this is something I’m almost obsessed with! We know we can achieve high win rates across many years of time. But we also know that there are some times that are better than others.This week we made some good progress on this in that we can clearly see cycles where our win rates do noticeably improve. The next phase is to see how condensed these cycles can be (they’re quite lengthy cycles at this point) and also how we can recognise that we’re actually in one while it’s happening, not merely after the event!
- Further improvements to the stocks TradeFinders where all filters are contained within the same sections regardless of the strategy.
- Mobile optimization and redesign of the Dashboard and Watchlists.
- Tweak to the OVIsi in terms of interpretation.
So, plenty to be optimistic about, where you will be able to position yourself into an even bigger advantage.
Bottom line, I feel it’s highly unlikely that we’ve hit the lows yet.
The last three out of four Mondays have seen a gap down, so it’s no surprise that Friday closed at/near its lows as investors were saying they didn’t want their dollars at risk over the weekend. That kind of sentiment has to change before we can be confident of a market low.
So, as we speak right now, it’s highly unlikely that a low is in place, and my previous forecast for the S&P 500 dropping to 2100 looks increasingly likely and potentially even optimistic.
What I posted to my private message board yesterday …
The market is in a strange predicament. The first whiff of proper good news will result in a short squeeze and serious uptick, and the next whiff of bad news will mean another leg down. What that means is that we have a stand-off, like from an old Western movie!
Typically if we were going to get a bounce we’d have had one by now. The question is whether the market has fully appreciated the impact this global lockdown will have on jobs, businesses, etc.
The path of least resistance looks down UNLESS a good piece of news emerges in terms of a vaccine etc. Any stance is risky right now and the market knows it, hence the current indecision.
BIG MOVES AHEAD
While we’re not out of the woods yet, I remain confident the world – and particularly the US markets – will get through this and there will be many bargains and opportunities, so again … stay alert and keep watching because we will be onto them.